Presidential Election Comes Down to the Wire
The outcome of the U.S. Presidential election is still unclear heading into the final weekend before Election Day on Tuesday.
The most recent national polls show a tight race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump, with most results falling within the statistical margin of error.
CBS News’ latest poll has the race at Clinton 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, with a margin of error of 3 points, and ABC News’ poll has Clinton at 47 percent to Trump’s 45 percent with a margin of error of 3 percent as well. The Rasmussen Report poll has Trump at 47 percent and Clinton at 42 percent with a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
“It seems to be a statistical tie in most polls,” said Carlos Martinez, a San Diego State University student still considering who to vote in the presidential election. “I’m leaning toward Hillary Clinton because I think Trump has relied too much on racial division in his campaigning,” Martinez added.
Online election prediction sites represent election outcome models that mostly show Clinton in a strong lead to win the election. One such site, EightThirtyFive.com, uses a statistical model that runs mock elections 20,000 times based on daily tracking polls in each state. Their latest prediction shows Clinton’s chances of winning the election at 66.2 percent versus Trump’s changes at 33.8 points.
But national polls do not reflect how fluid the race is because only a handful of states can tilt the outcome of the election.
For example, Florida has now become a toss-up state that only three weeks ago seemed to be leaning toward Trump. The latest CNN statewide poll in Florida has the race at Clinton 49percent to Trump 47 percent but still within the margin of error.
But the race has tightened up in the past two weeks with Donald Trump closing the gap in several swing states that could turn the results around.
In Nevada, the recent polls show Trump pulling ahead of Clinton and now showing him leading with 49 points to 43. Just last month, Clinton held a slight lead in the Silver State.
The competitive states that are now too close to call included Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. Others states that were toss-ups a few months ago seem to have settled into leaning one way or the other. Pennsylvania and Virginia have moved toward Clinton; Arizona and Ohio have moved toward Trump.
This week, both candidates held campaign events in battleground states to rally voters heading into the final weekend of the long campaign season.
Hillary Clinton also enjoys the support from several high-profile campaigns surrogates to help her cover more ground, including President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, as well as her formal rival, Bernie Sanders.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, has not had many popular Republicans to help him campaign, relying more on his family, including daughter Ivanka, and sons, Donald Jr., and younger son, Eric. This week, Trump’s wife, Melania, campaigned in Pennsylvania, although she has held very few public events throughout the campaign.
Election experts predict voter turnout for this election could surpass the record turnout set in 2008, when 62 percent of registered voters participated. Voting fell 4 percent in the 2012 elections but that, according to experts, is common in re-election campaigns compared to elections for choosing a new president.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 8. Polls in San Diego County will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.