May 28, 2004

Commentary

The Gathering Storm

By Andrés Lozano

(Part 2 of 3)

[…] The charade’s outcome is predictable: AMLO might become elected president in 2006 as joint candidate of the PRD and the PRI or a substantial splinter group from the PRI. After elected with the joint majority of the PRD and a PRI’s factious majority in Congress, remaining PRI representatives will align themselves behind him. He will enjoy a rubberstamp Legislative. From day one onwards, he will overwhelm the Judiciary and will be surrounded by the push-peddlers, beneficiaries of private monopolies under concession. Meantime, social monopolists such as union leaders and government owned franchises will patiently queue to render him fealty. He will put in jail and eliminate a few Fobaproa small fry -bankrupt bank owners- and assorted enemies within the PRD and the PRI in a ‘Night of the Long Knives’ replica; will ridicule and expose, the well-deserved ineptitude and corruption among PAN’s -presently governing party- membership. In summary, by the end of 2007, he will be the most popular figure ever in Mexican history. As with the swastika bearing armbands favored by the Nazis, the Peje’s -his nickname- storm troopers will bear the Aztec Sun’s Nazi symbol.

In order to mismanage in his expected style, he must broaden privileges. He will adopt nationalistic economic measures that will enhance his short-term popularity. The money printing machinery will run amok day and night. In practice, these measures will foster inflation, capital’s flight, unemployment, devaluation and economic stagnation, impossible to hide from 2008 onwards. However, this will not concern him at all. Previously he would have proposed, and the Congress approved by acclamation his government reform along the lines of the Nuremberg laws, included the reelection of popular representatives. He will curb IFE’s -the electoral college- budget, and discredit voting through frequent and phony referenda. By 2009, he will control the federal electoral process and each and every one of the state elections since 2007. The Mexican political landscape of 2009 will be akin to that of 1973. PAN, in its disrepute, will not be a counterweight for AMLO’s 2009 mid-term electoral onslaught. The flimsily ingrained political opposition will be uprooted with the self-proclaimed intellectual’s’ consent. From the outset, he will enjoy a friendly press. The few unlikely independent media will soon fold. Almost none will put at risk privileges and subventions. By 2008 the Mexican press will be alike 1975’s: monolithic and thick. Independent feature writers will shelter themselves in Internet from an American exile or under pseudonym, since in Mexico or openly they will put themselves in harm’s way. In all likelihood, AMLO will expose TV Azteca’s dirty linen and force Ricardo Salinas Pliego to divest in a an act of personal retribution. Someone among AMLO’s cronies will receive the stock under privileged, irregular and incompetent conditions if such thing is possible.

The Mexican system will fall into chaos by 2009 and AMLO will sort out the pension’s crisis putting the blame on PAN’s previous administration and will get away with it. He will leave unprotected individual retirees adjusting their pensions at starvation levels. He will receive praise from the reinforced and renewed boot licker’s choir of union bosses and their lackeys whose perks will be protected and increased. Frequent power and energy failures and shortages will also be charged against the previous administration; nonetheless he will not correct supply crashes. Mexicans will grow used to power and energy failures, the disappearance of, not translated into prosperity, civil liberties under Fox but into increased civil frivolity. Power cuts and energy shortages will occur in tandem with and oriented towards attempts to expose the national disaster, apt route to intimidate freedom of speech and movement. It will be crucial for AMLO to schedule between 1988 and 2006 the source of all national disasters. He cannot do it between 1970 and 1988 when all went haywire, since then he would be at odds with Echeverria’s, Lopez Portillo’s and De la Madrid’s blunders which he will attempt to repeat. It will not be difficult for him, the voting age population from 1970 till 2006, will be in a majority and has only presenced humiliation coupled with backwardness. The older population suffers self-imposed amnesia and will be too old to take into the streets and combat tyranny’ attempts. All the PRD and the worst elements of the PRI will share AMLO’s vision, since the former justify them whilst the latter find redemption. AMLO’s PRD is the essence of PRI at its worst. In a like manner, PRI embodies Porfirio Diaz’ legacy at its worst also; hence, the same rotten system since 1876 with absurd staying power among miracle seekers.

Will continue…

Andrés Lozano alozanoh@msn.com

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