June 4, 2004

Commentary

The Gathering Storm

By Andrés Lozano

(Part 3 of 3)

[…] From AMLO’s first inauguration onwards, the bilateral relationship with America will be taut and formal, but not unfriendly. “Violets know when and where to shrink.” AMLO’s messianic pose attuned with popular gullibility will pump up the bubble of spontaneous prosperity through public expenditure squandering. During a short-lived interlude emigration will ease off and AMLO will enjoy a respite with the US Administration as massive Mexican immigration lulls. By 2009, when the American public and government start concerning themselves with what is going on in Mexico, AMLO’s reply will be standard fare: he will denounce American intrusion in Mexican domestic affairs coupled with dark evil doers North and South of the border in cahoots against his ‘progressive’ Administration. He is really deft at doing this! He will complain at the UN against American intrusion. By 2009, the present state of decay in the US-Venezuela bilateral relationship will be comparable to the one between US-Mexico. Maybe even in lockstep! By this time Mexico’s economic breakdown will be impossible to conceal, yet not bad news for AMLO, since internal dissidence will be reading itself to emigrate at any cost -a foe’s flight is aided-, thus, abetting the Mayan-Aztec high priest to tighten the domestic rein. As all self-respecting tyrants, he will eliminate or exile brain cells along with self-advancement instincts. Tyrannies’ victories rely on penury coupled with diminished expectations, never besides prosperity. After a brief lull, by 2010, the floodgates of emigration will be reopened, again encouraged by the government.

The 2012 elections will be remindful of those held back in 1976. This time with AMLO’s single real candidature and a couple of stooge candidacies from minor parties closely linked with AMLO, in order to comply with the democratic forms. By this time IQ’s over 100 would have emigrated to America and Mexico’s second decade of the 2000’s will be made up of conformists: A despot’s dream. Of course the hindered Mexico since the 70’s will remain mired by then, however, emigration will have relieved AMLO from improved expectations. By and large, Mexico will resemble an outgrown Macuspana -AMLO’s birthplace, a forsaken hamlet in Tabasco-, a sort of village culture with AMLO as its tribal chief, like Mugabe in Zimbabwe. By then, Mexicans within Mexico will be tropicalized. A kind of minimum aspirations Eden will have been reached, where people will speak a rudimentary pidgin under 500 words in strength. Dire for the country, excellent for AMLO’s tyranny. AMLO was born back in 1953 so, without difficulty he can still be in power by 2033. By that year he will only have 27 years mismanaging.

The other Mexico, the emigrated Mexico will be a honeycomb of activity from California all the way down to Georgia and will accomplish for this region the miracle Cubans performed in, previous to their arrival, sluggish Florida. The Mexican people within Mexico will languish and at some point, towards the second half of the twenty first century, might seek support from their ethnic brethren, the children and grandchildren of Mexico’s great 2006-2012 exodus. Maybe by that time Mexicans might have tired of internal repression and dearth, of so many unfulfilled a miracle, of so much empty wordiness. Then, Mexican Americans will accomplish for Mexico what Cuban Americans are about to perform in Cuba. The same western Germans began doing for eastern Germans back in 1989: Take things under control! Our grandchildren will see when Mexico reaches, by 2070, the level of prosperity attained originally back in 1970.

Is it fatal the previously described dire outcome? Under no circumstances! It is only a forecast of what could happen if Mexicans do not take up matters in their hands now. The hardly earned democracy is unfinished. Back in 2000, voters’ only broke the one party system stranglehold and chose an alternative. Today, Mexicans can be and generally are disappointed with the Administration of their choice, but it is theirs’. What a difference with previously imposed revolting administrations! Fox’s appalling Administration has redeeming traits: It has been an outright supporter of the freedom of speech and has carefully managed public finances and curtailed public spending. We can complain with good reason for the lack of growth, but we are not under inflation’s grip now. A lot on its own merits! Fox’s unforgivable sins are his irresolution and an exasperating triviality. Fox enjoyed widespread popular support to corner malefactors’ from previous administrations and to pressure political opposition parties to share responsibilities in the conduction of government. He chose not to do it. Gridlock has been the ensuing outcome choking us. Also, and this is very serious, he trivialized the public office through chumminess, he preferred popularity to the detached dignity inherent in the office. The boss, the teacher and the parent cannot afford to fall prey to the buddy system. Sooner or later it is crucial to enjoy a respectful detachment. Decision takers require it in order to be taken seriously. Fox lost his Presidency the day he allowed AMLO to intrude and weaken him in federal affairs outside AMLO’s authority. In a twist of irony we now run the risk of electing a tyrant, in great measure, because he projects authority, even if such authority in his hands will prove catastrophic.

Andrés Lozano alozanoh@msn.com

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