July 7, 2000


Two Different Polls on Hispanic Voters and the Presidential Race.

Poll finds a shifting Hispanic electorate

WASHINGTON June 30 — The nation's estimated 5.5 million Hispanic voters this year are far different from those who cast ballots in 1990, says a national poll released Tuesday, but the vast majority remain loyal to the Democratic Party.

Mexican-Americans, who make up 58% of Hispanic voters, still represent the most powerful voting bloc among Hispanic groups, according to Sergio Bendixen, who conducted this year's Hispanic Voter Presidential Poll. But voters from Central and South America (mainly El Salvador, Colombia, Nicaragua and Ecuador) now outnumber Cuban voters and Puerto Rican voters.

People whose families originated in Central and South America represent 12% of Hispanic voters, followed by Puerto Ricans at 11%, Cubans at 7% and Dominicans at 4%. Other Hispanics make up 8%.

One political fact hasn't changed: Hispanic voters prefer Democrats over Republicans overwhelmingly, especially Hispanics who became U.S. citizens after 1995.

Vice President Gore, the Democratic presidential candidate, had a 22-percentage-point lead in the poll over his GOP opponent, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, 54%-32%. However, Bush's numbers among Hispanics exceed GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole's in 1996,, when President Clinton took 72% of the Hispanic vote to Dole's 21%.

The poll, which interviewed 1,002 Hispanics nationwide, was commissioned by Vista, a monthly bilingual publication distributed through U.S. newspapers in major Hispanic markets.

The magazine's poll was the first in a series between now and the presidential election Nov. 7.

Story was extracted from the Gannett News Service, written by Sergio Bustos.

 


Bush Making Inroads Among Hispanic Voters, Knight Ridder Poll Finds

WASHINGTON, June 30 — Vice President Gore is leading Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a 16-point margin among Hispanic voters, but the Republican presidential candidate is making inroads among the nation's fastest-growing minority group, according to a new Knight Ridder poll released today.

The telephone survey of more than 2,700 registered Hispanic-American voters, conducted June 7 to 13 in English and Spanish, found that Gore leads Bush by 50 percent to 34 percent among likely Hispanic voters. The Knight Ridder Hispanic Voter Poll, the most comprehensive survey of Hispanic voters this year, has a 1.9 percent range of error. Despite his lead, the survey found that Gore's support among Hispanic voters is far short of that given to Bill Clinton in his two presidential races.

Although 60 percent of the Hispanic voters sampled identified themselves as Democrats, slightly less than 50 percent said they would vote for Gore or are leaning toward him. And while only 20 percent of those polled said they were Republicans, 34 percent said they intended to vote for Bush or were leaning toward him.

"Bush is a more appealing Republican to Hispanics than any Republican who's come down the pike in memory ... ," said Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. "Bush is taking a definite step in the direction of making Republicans competitive with the fastest-growing constituency."

Many of those polled by Knight Ridder said they intend to vote for Bush even though they have more confidence in Gore's ability to handle many of the issues that are most important to them, including education, health care and the economy.

"Gore has two problems," said R. Michael Alvarez, a political scientist at the California Institute of Technology who reviewed the polling data. "Gore needs to convince the Democrats who are defecting to Bush to come back to his camp, and he has to work on the undecideds and people who are supporting another candidate, mainly Ralph Nader," he said, referring to the Green Party nominee.

The Knight Ridder Hispanic Voter Poll was conducted by International Communications Research of Media, Pa., for the Knight Ridder Washington Bureau and three Knight Ridder newspapers: the San Jose Mercury News, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and the Miami Herald. The sample includes 600 respondents each in California, Texas, Florida and New York, which have the largest Hispanic voter populations. In these four states, the poll results are accurate within plus or minus 4.1 points.

Another 300 respondents are from Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Together, the 12 states include 90 percent of the nation's Hispanic registered voters.

The survey is part of an intensive examination by Knight Ridder Newspapers of the diverse concerns and attitudes of Hispanic voters. The company publishes four daily newspapers in California, three in Florida and one in Texas, as well as three Spanish-language newspapers, in Fort Worth, Miami and San Jose.

Press release from Knight Ridder Newspapers, via PRNewswire.

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Gore con Ventaja entre los Hispanos, según Encuesta

Hispánica Press

El vicepresidente de Estados Unidos y virtual candidato presidencial demócrata, Al Gore, aventaja por 16 puntos a su oponente republicano y gobernador de Texas, George W. Bush, entre los votantes hispanos, según una encuesta dada a conocer por la cadena de periódicos Knight Ridder el 30 de junio.

Gore obtuvo el 50% de las preferencias de los más de 2,700 votantes hispanos registrados que participaron en la encuesta, la cual se realizó por teléfono entre el 7 y el 13 junio en inglés y español. Bush recibió el 34%. Sin embargo, se observa que la ventaja de Gore es inferior a las que tuvo el actual presidente Bill Clinton, entre los votantes latinos, en las dos elecciones en que participó en 1992 y 1996.

La encuesta de Knight Ridder tiene un margen de error de 1.9%. Aunque el 60% de los hispanos registrados para votar se identifican como demócratas, poco menos del 50% dijo que emitiría su voto a favor del vicepresidente o que sentía simpatías por él, de acuerdo con la encuesta. Sólo el 20% de los electores consultados dijo ser republicano, pero 34% manifestó su interés por votar por el gobernador Bush.

El gobernador y aspirante republicano "tiene más preferencias entre los hispanos que ningún otro miembro de su partido que se recuerde", dijo el analista político Bruce Buchanan, de la Universidad de Texas en Austin.

"Bush está dando los pasos definitivos en la dirección de hacer de los republicanos una fuerza competitiva entre el segmento electoral de mayor crecimiento" en Estados Unidos, agregó el analista.

Muchos de los encuestados dijeron que pretenden votar por Bush aunque tienen más confianza en la habilidad de Gore para manejar temas que son los más importantes para ellos, como la educación, la salud pública y la economía.

De acuerdo con R. Michael Alvarez, politólogo del Instituto Tecnológico de California, quien revisó los datos de la encuesta, "Gore tiene dos problemas".

"Necesita convencer a los demócratas que están desertando hacia las filas de Bush de que regresen con él, y tiene que trabajar con los indecisos y con quienes apoyan a otros candidatos, principalmente a Ralph Nader", dijo Alvarez.

Nader, un conocido activista por los derechos del consumidor y la ecología, es el aspirante presidencial del Partido Verde.

La encuesta de Knight Ridder fue conducida por International Communications Research, del estado de Pensilvania, para la oficina de Knight Ridder en Washington y tres periódicos de esa cadena: el San José Mercury News, el Fort Worth Star-Telegram y el Miami Herald.

Para llevar a cabo el sondeo se tomaron 600 votantes de cada uno de los siguientes estados: California, Texas, Florida y Nueva York, que tienen las mayores concentraciones de hispanos en Estados Unidos.

También se consultó a 300 votantes de cada unos de los siguientes estados: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Nuevo México y Pensilvania.

Estos 12 estados albergan al 90% de los votantes hispanos registrados en todo Estados Unidos.

La consulta es parte de una fuerte revisión de la opinión de los votantes hispanos que lleva a cabo la cadena Knight Ridder, que publica cuatro diarios en California, tres en Florida y uno en Texas, así como tres periódicos en español en Fort Worth, Miami y San José.

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